Politicians and social commentators worry that the turnout of 59% of the electorate in
the UK General Election of 2001 is much too small. But as Amrita Dhillon and Susana
Peralta explain in the latest issue of the Economic Journal, to an economist, this figure
is inexplicably high! Since it is difficult for individual voters to believe that they can affect
the outcome of an election with their votes, why should they bother turning out even if
the cost of voting is less than a penny?
Dhillon and Peralta’s report surveys the latest economic research that seeks to
understand why so many people turn out to vote. It suggests the following principal
motivations:
?? Voters turn out more when an election is close. This can happen in two ways: voters
realise when their vote is more likely to count; and parties concentrate their election
resources on reaching voters in marginal seats.
?? Informed voters turn out more than uninformed ones: it is ‘rational’ for uninformed
citizens to abstain when there is a danger that they will affect the election against
their own best interests.
?? Citizens are less likely to turn out when they see no difference between the main
contenders. One perception is that this happens when voters are disaffected; it can
also happen when they would be equally happy with either alternative.
?? Increases in the cost of voting or in the size of the population cause turnout to
decline.
?? Parties that have a bigger support base have more trouble getting their supporters
to turn out at elections: this is because the vote of an individual supporter matters
less.
?? Social norms are important in voting decisions: If turnout levels were historically
high, they tend to stay high. For example, voter turnout in Italy is persistently high
(close to 90% on average) compared to the United States (50% on average).
?? Finally, ‘bandwagon effects’ can be explained by the needs of voters to have their
beliefs reinforced by other voters. For example, the recent success of the extreme
right in France in the first round of the presidential election led to some copycat
voting for the BNP in the UK.
ENDS
Notes for Editors: ‘Economic Theories of Voter Turnout’ by Amrita Dhillon and Susana
Peralta is published i n the June 2002 issue of the Economic Journal.
Dr Dhillon is at the University of Warwick; Ms Peralta is at the Universite Catholique de
Louvain in Belgium.
For Further Information: contact Amrita Dhillon on 024-76-523056 (email:
A.Dhillon@warwick.ac.uk); or RES Media Consultant Romesh Vaitilingam on 0117-983-
9770 or 07768-661095 (email: romesh@compuserve.com).